There's No Crying in Baseball!

What up y'alls? Hope your weekend was as good as the Cubs'. I probably couldn't have drawn that one up any better. The Cubs of course swept a three game series vs. Cincinnati at Wrigley Field for the first time since 2001. I figured that they would win two out of three, but sweeping them at home wasn't that big of a surprise considering how poorly the Reds have been playing in the second half. Here's where it gets better/more surprising if you're a Cubs fan. I assumed that Philadelphia would take two out of three vs. St. Louis (didn't know the games would be so lopsided), that wasn't a shock either, but to have the New York Mets go into Houston and take two of three from the red-hot Astros (combined score of 18-6 in the Mets' two wins) and for Atlanta to go into Miller Park and take two of three from the Brewers (combined score of 19-6 in the Braves' two wins) now THAT was a very pleasant surprise. I was off in my prediction from Friday's post where I said, "The Cubs will only be a 1/2 game out of 1st place on Monday." I can deal with being wrong every once in awhile. Great weekend.

From the Cubs' perspective, the standings are stacking up very nicely right now as we head into August and the "dog days" of the season. Not only are the Northsiders in 1st place by a 1/2 game after a very sub-par first 3 1/2 months, they lead the Cardinals and Astros by 3 full games in the loss column, while Milwaukee is four games back! With as good as Randy Wells (6-4, 3.10 ERA) and Kevin Hart (2-1, 2.08 ERA) have pitched, getting Ryan Dempster and All-Star Ted Lilly back into the rotation, and hopefully getting a HEALTHY Geovany Soto back will be like acquiring THREE former All-Star players at the trade deadline for a team that is already in 1st place. It seems that things are finally coming together for the '09 team, and I believe that it will only get better. (I just jinxed it didn't I?)

I like what St. Louis has done in the last few weeks (as does a very SURPRISED Tony LaRussa). The front-office was criticized very heavily for doing absolutely nothing in the off-season as far as key acquisitions go, yet LaRussa led a very over-achieving group to a hot start (17-7) in the first month of the season. Since then, the Cardinals have played the kind of baseball that most experts predicted them to play: A team that could jump up and bite you (because of Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter), but a slightly below average team none the less (a 36-41 record since their nice April). With the acquisitions of Mark DeRosa (does NOT look right in that uniform) and Matt Holiday (very surprising that the Red Birds gave up one of their BEST prospects for what is seemingly a renta-player), this is now a VERY formidable line-up as far as I'm concerned. Pujols now has legitimate protection with Holiday, and with DeRosa in the lineup, Cardinals fans don't have to see Joe Thurston playing everyday at third base (I'd be thrilled about that). If you've noticed, I haven't mentioned anything about the Julio Lugo acquisition. Well, that's because I don't really consider it to be that meaningful. Yes, I know that the guy is batting .317 right now (coincidentally what Aaron Miles batted last season...who?), but he's only played in 40 games (that avg. will drop very quickly) and I've always enjoyed the way that Brendan Ryan plays. He just seems to be more of a "LaRussa guy" than Lugo. Also, have fun with that $9 million per year for a utility infielder. (Not sure how much the Cards have to pay of that massive contract, but something to consider). I just hope he doesn't beat the crap out of any women down in the "Gateway City," that would be unfortunate.

Let's take a look ahead...

The Cubs welcome Houston into town for a four game series starting tonight (the fourth game being a make-up from an earlier rain-out). St. Louis gets to host the team with the best record in baseball as the Dodgers (62-36) come to Busch (very funny) for four, and Milwaukee has the good fortune of playing the next seven games against the Nationals (30-68) and the Padres (38-61). The Cubs have a great opportunity to really put a damper into the hopes of a valiant second half comeback from the Astros. If the Cubs can continue their outstanding play at home (30-18) and take three of four, all of a sudden Houston is four games back and five back in the loss column heading into August. The Cardinals are (26-21) at home and the Dodgers are (28-19) on the road. Something has to give in this series. My prediction: They split. Milwaukee should at worst go 3-1 against the crap that they get to face at home before heading to San Diego, so after this next series for all of these teams, here's what I believe the standings will be:

Chicago (54-46)

St. Louis (55-50) 1.5 GB

Milwaukee (52-50) 3 GB

Houston (51-51) 4 GB

Since we are heading into August and there are still a TON of games to be played, let's see who has the easiest road to the division:

Chicago - 66 games remaining (33 Home, 33 Away).

St. Louis - 61 games remaining (34 Home, 27 Away).

Milwaukee - 64 games remaining (32 Home, 32 Away).

Houston - 64 games remaining (31 Home, 33 Away).

St. Louis clearly has the advantage with the amount of home games remaining on their schedule. The Cardinals aren't as good at home as the Cubs, but the six less road games should definitely play to their advantage. Houston has the toughest road with more games away from Minute Maid Park than at home. Let's take a look at the caliber of opponents that are left on each team's schedule:

Chicago - Remaining opponent's winning % is .488 (36 games against teams .500 or better).

St. Louis - Remaining opponent's winning % is .488 (37 games against teams .500 or better).

Milwaukee - Remaining opponent's winning % is .457 (38 games against teams .500 or better).

Houston - Remaining opponent's winning % is .506 (46 games against teams .500 or better).

I think that these numbers are staggering! Milwaukee has a huge advantage as far as the winning % of their remaining opponents is concerned, while Houston is in BIG TROUBLE. Not only do the Astros remaining opponents combine to have an above .500 winning %, they play 46 individual games against teams at/over the mark (including the next 23 in a row!) I like where the Cardinals sit because they have all of those home games left, and of their 27 road games remaining only 12 of them are against teams that are .500 or better. The Cubs look very good as well with only 36 of their remaining 66 games against winning teams as they sit atop of the division.

Looking ahead to the final week of the season, know this: If the division is tight with six games to go, the Cubs are winning it (wow, two jinxes in one blog...very unlike me). The Northsiders close 2009 with six straight home games. Three against Pittsburgh (43-55) and then three against Arizona (43-56). The other teams in the mix aren't quite as fortunate. St. Louis has three AT Cincinnati (44-53) and then closes out at home with three big ones vs. Milwaukee (49-49). The Brewers play three AT Colorado (54-44) before heading TO Busch (53-48), while the Astros finish with four AT Philadelphia (56-40) before heading TO New York (46-51) for three vs. the Mets. Let's just take care of business vs. the pesky Astros.

It's good to dive into a little baseball after a great weekend. Hopefully the Sox can bounce back after a very unfortunate (1-3) series at Detroit. Hit me up on facebook or in the comments section of this blog with your thoughts on the NL Central race. Right now I'm listening to "The Kids Don't Stand a Chance" by Vampire Weekend. Catchy tune. Drinks of Choice: Smithwick's (don't ever say the name of this beer wrong!) Take care.

Webby